Global food prices will remain stable for the year ahead, suggest recent UN forecasts, but in the longer term we can expect much more volatility.

That’s because the food sector is unable to cope with a double whammy of rising demand for food and risks including water scarcity, land degradation and climate change, a recent analysis [pdf] concludes.

In a twist of fate, the countries and people who will be worst affected will be the ones that tend to contribute least to such environmental risks. Here are five charts that help explain the story.

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